RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 162, Part II, 25 August 2004

MONTENEGRO WANTS TALKS ON DISSOLVING JOINT STATE WITH SERBIA

By Patrick Moore

Montenegro's government is about to take a big step towards
dissolving the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro and moving toward
independence. Where matters will end is nonetheless anybody's guess.
The union of Serbia and Montenegro has never been truly
popular in either of those republics. EU foreign- and security-policy
chief Javier Solana is the man chiefly responsible for its creation
in 2002, so much so that some Balkan wags dubbed the new state
"Solania." Following years of ineffective policy initiatives in the
former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, Brussels was determined not to allow
any more small states to emerge from the wreck of Josip Broz Tito's
onetime federation.
But many Serbian leaders were reluctant to grant political
equality to Montenegro, which has roughly 1/10th of the larger
republic's population. The Montenegrin leadership, for its part,
grudgingly yielded to EU pressure for a joint state but refused to
give up its ultimate goal of independence. Consequently, the
agreement setting up the union permits a referendum on independence
but not until 2005 at the earliest.
The state is a curious hybrid, which lacks not only a unified
economic policy but even a common currency: Serbia uses the dinar,
while Montenegro has the euro. Foreign and defense policies are among
those conducted by joint ministries, but Montenegro also has its own
foreign minister and tries to conduct external relations of its own.
There is a common army, but Montenegrin soldiers are expected to
serve only in that republic. And although the basic principles for
the union were agreed in early 2002, it took roughly one year of
haggling before the legal basis was set for the joint state to come
into being in 2003.
Polls in Montenegro have often shown a roughly even split on
the issue of independence, perhaps with a slight majority now
favoring independence. The root of the problem is that Montenegrins
have never achieved a consensus as to whether they are a distinct
people or a special branch of the Serbian nation. Many Montenegrins
live and work in Serbia, and they and their families would suffer
were the joint state to split up.
On the other hand, Serbian public opinion has tended to favor
ending the union, but few politicians have been willing to embrace
independence in defiance of the EU. Exceptions are the G-17 Plus
party, which is a smaller member of the governing coalition, and
Vladan Batic's Christian Democrats (DHSS), which fared badly in the
December parliamentary elections. Batic once sponsored a petition
drive on a referendum on independence, much to the embarrassment of
some of his coalition partners in the previous government. In recent
months, the G-17 Plus has stressed that the two republics' economies
are incompatible under one roof and that European integration can
best be achieved by each republic going its own way.
The EU does not see things that way. Brussels has made it
clear that it would be very unhappy were its creation to be
dissolved, and that any new republics would have to relaunch their
stabilization and association talks with the EU from the start again.
Against this background, Montenegro's governing Democratic
Party of Socialists (DPS) has sought to end the summer political
doldrums by making a concrete proposal aimed at dissolving the joint
state. Miodrag Vukovic, who is a DPS leader, said in Podgorica on 18
August that the Montenegrin authorities will formally propose to
Serbia in September that the two sides start talks on ending the
union.
Vukovic suggested that Belgrade and Podgorica might review
three options, starting with total independence for each republic. A
second possibility might be to link two internationally recognized,
independent states in an association on the model of the Commonwealth
of Independent States that exists among some successor states to the
former Soviet Union. A third option might be to remain in the joint
state until 2005, when a referendum on independence will
automatically take place.
Initial reactions to his proposal were guarded, to say the
least. The Montenegrin Social Democrats (SDP), who are coalition
partners of the DPS and outspoken advocates of independence, declined
to comment. The opposition Socialist People's Party (SNP) said that
the DPS is unlikely to find many people in Belgrade who are willing
to talk with them about their proposal.
In the Serbian capital, only G-17 Plus leader and Deputy
Prime Minister Miroljub Labus said that talks could start in the
fall. He stressed that the current situation is untenable because
economic differences between the two republics are so great that no
further progress in stabilization and association talks with the EU
is possible (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 18 May and 23 June 2004).
In response to a statement by a Serbian government official
that the cabinet is not legally competent to discuss separation,
Vukovic told the pro-opposition daily "Dan" of 20 August that such an
attitude reflects "political stupidity." He stressed that dissolution
is the best way to avoid what he called an impending "debacle" if
matters continue as they are. Dragan Kujovic, who is deputy speaker
of the Montenegrin parliament, said on 20 August that the government
will launch a campaign for a referendum on independence if the
Belgrade authorities refuse to talk.
Brussels did not comment on Vukovic's initial statement
immediately, but in Strasbourg, Roman Jakic, who is chair of the
Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly's Political Affairs
Committee, told RFE/RL on 19 August that "the international
community" would prefer that Serbia and Montenegro continues as a
joint state. Jakic, who is from Slovenia, added, however, that one
must respect any democratically expressed wish of the citizens of the
two republics.
In Podgorica, the pro-government daily "Pobjeda" reported on
Jakic's interview with RFE/RL, saying in the headline that he
believes that "separation is a matter for Serbia and Montenegro"
alone.



RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 161, Part II, 24 August 2004

MONTENEGRIN ALBANIAN LEADER CALLS FOR TWO REFERENDUMS. Ferhat
Dinosha, the head of the Democratic Union of Albanians, a political
party in Montenegro, told RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian
Languages Service in Podgorica on 23 August that "the most democratic
solution to the stabilization of the situation in the Balkans would
be parallel referendums in Montenegro and Kosova." He noted that the
situation in both places reflects the fact that the dissolution of
former Yugoslavia is not yet complete. PM


RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 8, No. 158, Part II, 19 August 2004

MONTENEGRO TO CALL FOR TALKS ON DISSOLVING JOINT STATE WITH SERBIA.
Miodrag Vukovic, a leader of Montenegro's governing Democratic Party
of Socialists (DPS), said in Podgorica on 18 August that the
Montenegrin authorities will formally propose to Serbia in September
that the two sides start talks on dissolving the joint state of
Serbia and Montenegro, which was launched in 2003 as a result of much
pressure from the EU, RFE/RL's South Slavic and Albanian Languages
Service reported. Vukovic suggested that Belgrade and Podgorica might
review three options, starting with total independence. A second
possibility might be to link two internationally recognized,
independent states in an association on the model of the Commonwealth
of Independent States that exists among some successor states to the
former Soviet Union. A third option might be to remain in the joint
state until 2005, when a referendum on independence will
automatically take place. Under the terms according to which the
joint state was set up, it will remain until at least 2005, at which
time either or both republics have the option of calling for a
referendum on independence. Among the major parties in Serbia, only
the G-17 Plus party favors dissolving the joint state (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 2 August 2004). PM